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布莱恩积极参与金融市场超过20年,曾担任投资组合经理、策略师和交易员。在Pu万博manbet提款re Financial Advisors, Brian利用他丰富的投资背景和对行为金融学的关注,帮助客户在动荡的市场中导航,并保持朝着他们的财务目标前进。之前[...]

2021年已经过去一半了。金融市场处于什么位置?Pure的执行副总裁兼研究总监Brian Perry, CFP®,CFA®提供更新和分析,哪些市场在第二季度领先,股票和债券的前景,以及如何应对更高的市场估值和不断上升的通胀。

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安迪:感谢您参加我们的年中市场更新网络研讨会。现在,您今天的演示者将是Brian Perry,CFP®,CFA®。他是Pure Financial Advisors的执行副总裁兼研究总监。期待今年年中的更新。告诉我们市场上发生了什么。所以,是的,只是为了让你提前知道,乔想知道,“你如何看待当前的通货膨胀对市场的影响?”以及,“随着大流行的复苏,你认为最大的市场增长领域是什么?”万博manbet提款

布莱恩:是的,你知道,我很有信心会得到一个关于通货膨胀的问题。这里有一些幻灯片。这一直是媒体关注的话题。我们可以讨论一些行业的发展,有时候预测起来有点困难,但我们会尽我们所能。所以,是的,很高兴能参与其中。我们有一些幻灯片。看我们能走多久。我们会把幻灯片看一遍如果有问题,安迪,请随意评论,如果没有,我们可以把问题留到最后,随你们怎么想。今天我想先谈谈上个季度的情况。正确的。

季度市场总结-指数回报

我们先从最近的开始,然后再看长期的。这里我有美国股票市场,这是一个宽泛的指标。然后是国际发达国家的股票。当我谈到这些的时候,想想加拿大,澳大利亚,日本,欧洲,这些国家。然后是一些不太发达的新兴市场,比如东南亚,非洲或者南美。然后是全球房地产,然后是债券,美国债券市场和全球债券市场。你可以看到所有的绿色箭头。你们大多数人可能都意识到,上个季度表现不错。事实上,去年的大部分时间都很好。你知道,美国股市上涨了8.25%,国际上没有那么好,但仍然非常好。 Right. 5% plus on international developed as well as emerging markets. You annualize that over 4 quarters, you’re looking at 20% plus return. So really good quarter across the board there. Global real estate, even better, up 10%. And even bonds, and I bet that if I had surveyed the audience 3 months ago, 4 months ago, pretty much everybody probably hated bonds. And hey, interest rates are going up. Bonds are going to get killed. You see bonds actually held in there, produced a positive performance there in the first quarter, Across the bottom there, just want to point out a couple of things. One is you can see below the second white line, since January of 2001, you can see the average quarterly return and you can see that this last quarter for almost everything was better than average. And then you see best quarter and worst quarter. And what I want to focus on is the worst quarter. And if you come across- so this is your second sort of horizontal line from the bottom, you see the worst quarter for US stocks was down about 23% in Q4 of 2008. International stocks down about 23%, 27% for EM. Go across and look at the worst quarter for bonds, down 3.4% in the first quarter of this very year, 2021. So a couple of things. One is you had a big move in interest rates during that quarter. But I think the more instructive thing is that a bad year or a bad quarter in the bond market is very, very different than a bad year in the stock market. In fact, I’ve given presentations where stocks fell more while I was talking than bonds have in their worst year. And so, again, that just cycles back to the reason for holding bonds in a portfolio, is a little bit of income, not as much right now, but a little bit, certainly some diversification. They don’t move exactly in lockstep with stocks. And then you get that muted volatility where you see the worst quarter and for really, frankly, not that bad compared to stock market volatility.

长期市场总结——截至2021年6月30日的指数回报

这是四分之一。去年呢?过去5年?过去10年?你会看到很多绿色的箭头。唯一的红色箭头是去年,债券市场略有下降,但在第二季度再次反弹。你看看股市,我的意思是,看看今年,美国股市上涨了44%,国际市场上涨了33%,新兴市场上涨了40%,这对股市来说是非凡的一年。你知道,这是被录下来的。所以我不能向你们保证我们会继续每个季度,每年都得到这些。但是,是的,我不能保证。

记住,这是不寻常的。我们所看到的全面回报是非常不寻常的。这是更广阔的市场。我们关注的一些领域,比如小公司股票等等,做得更好。在过去的9到12个月里,他们做得非常非常好。你可以看到5年,一点点,仍然有很多积极的消息。10年,同样的事情。你看到的是真正的大区别是,国际股票的表现不如美国股票。对于一些国际市场来说,在5年内仍然有可观的回报,不如美国。10年后,你会发现美国已经真正超越了国际市场。最大的贡献者可能是,如果你回想一下,我不知道,在美国,大型科技股,即所谓的“方”股的表现是3年、4年或5年。我们经历了这样一个时期,那几家或那十家真正大的科技公司不仅在美国占据主导地位,而且在全球市场的表现上占据主导地位。因为这些都是在美国,所以在这段时间里,你在美国的回报要比在国际上高很多,这确实拖累了所有这些数字,或者影响了所有这些数字。让我们再看一看,回到第二季度的一些资产类别。你可以在这里看到第二季度,绿色条是各种资产类别。再一次,一切都很好。如果我们一直看底部,一个月,美国国库券,这基本上是现金持平。那是因为你得不到任何回报。现金回报率基本上为零,正如你们中那些把钱存入银行账户或类似账户的人所意识到的那样。我们有一个现金管理计划,通过第三方附属公司,他们可以得到更高的回报。因此,如果你有多余的现金,你希望得到一些回报,我们可以通过它获得的回报不像过去那么高,但它高于许多当地银行。因此,如果你有一些额外的现金,无论出于什么原因,你正在等待买房或其他什么,与你的顾问交谈,他们可以向你介绍这个项目,让你获得比当地一些银行更高的利率。

世界资产类别–2021年第二季度指数回报

至于其他一些资产类别,你看,房地产是表现最好的一年,最高涨幅约为11%。新兴市场中,小型股占11%。这再次说明了全球多元化,以及小公司溢价。我可以看到标普指数表现很好,还有罗素1000,罗素3000。非常全面。新兴市场对公司估值,很多资产类别的回报率是4%,5%,6%,记住,这不是一年的回报率。这些数字相当可观,接近一年的平均水平。这些只是第二季度的数据。所以,一切都很好。一年前,从投资的角度来看,世界可能是可怕的,13、14个月前,在Covid - 19带来的最严重的衰退中,我知道我和你们很多人谈过,做了一些演讲,市场真的关闭了。 You know, they fell really significantly as we were forced to go into our homes and Covid was rampant. I don’t know whether or not we’re at the end of the tunnel with Covid. Right. We hear about the Delta variant. We hear about some of what’s going on in some other countries with renewed shutdowns, a spike in cases. There’s some concern about what the United States might look like come Fall. Right now, it seems like life is somewhat back to normal in many places. Whether or not that continues, I think is still to be determined. And it is really going to have a big impact on financial markets, where a lot of what’s driven markets is the prospect of the economy opening back up and then the economy actually opening back up. If you’ve been to the airport recently, you know that parking is full and the lines at TSA are pretty long. If you’ve been in restaurants are pretty full. So life is really coming back towards normal. For markets to continue to do well, I think that that needs to continue to happen. This is just my opinion. But I do think that if we were forced back into some sort of shelter in place or at the very least lifestyle restrictions, that would probably impact markets broadly and certainly some of the winners and losers out there. Keep in mind, though, that that’s the reason that you own different parts of the portfolio. So if you look at this chart, all of the asset classes at the top, real estate, different kinds of stocks, and the like, most of those tend to do well when the economy’s doing well. So those are your hey, the world is returning to normal. Everything’s OK. Those go up. Those asset classes at the bottom haven’t done quite as well. I’m pointing in particular to Treasury bills or the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index and the like. Those are your asset classes that if Covid was to resurge, if the Delta variant was to force restrictions on us and stuff, if businesses had to re-shutter, those are the parts of portfolio that historically have done OK in that environment, have really held in there. Even back during last Spring, Spring of 2020 with Covid, those were the asset classes that held their value. And for those of you taking distributions, that’s where you pulled money from during those times that markets are falling in order to give the stocks and whatnot time to recover. For those of you not yet taking distributions, those are the asset classes then that you can sell in order to rebalance into the stocks or whatever that have fallen. So, again, bringing in that systematic discipline of selling high and buying low.

美国股市——2021年第二季度指数回报

如果我们仔细看看在美国和在这个图表有很多,所以请不要担心记住这一切,但如果你看看顶部在绿色的酒吧,你可以看到去年第四季度表现最好的是大型成长股,紧随其后的是大公司。然后你可以看到大值和小值的表现稍微差一些。在小公司领域,价值溢价,你们可能都知道我们强调价值型股票,小公司价值型股票比小公司成长型股票表现更好。这很好。在大公司领域,增长表现优于价值表现,总体而言,上季度大公司的表现好于小公司。然而,如果你看看下面的白色图表,今年迄今的数字和一年的数字,你会看到相反的情况。你可以看到,到目前为止,在2021年和过去的12个月里,小公司比大公司做得更好。价值与增长的对比也是如此。事实上,在过去的一年里,小价值上升了73%,大价值上升了43%。同样,这也不能保证。 Certainly, we don’t expect to continue to get 73% from any segment of the portfolio in the next 12 months. But when it happens, it’s nice. And what I think is important to remember is that these things average out, right. So the idea isn’t that you’re going to get 30%, 40% each year or 5% or 8% each quarter. It’s that you’ll have times when you get that and times when you get maybe 1% or 2%, sometimes maybe even portfolio performance is negative. The idea is that it averages out to not necessarily what the market or some arbitrary benchmark is doing, but to what return you need in order to meet your financial goals. That’s the return assumed in your plan when you run through your cash flows and meeting that not in any given year, but across time is really the key to financial success.

精选市场表现–2021年第二季度指数回报

放眼世界,你可以看到各国股市的表现。你可以看到左边是一些发达市场,右边是一些新兴市场。你可以看到丹麦排在最前面瑞士,芬兰,然后是去年唯一表现不佳的发达国家是新西兰和日本。然后你可以看到,在新兴市场,有一些消极的表现,但也有更多的积极表现。在过去的18个月里,新兴市场的表现非常好,上个季度有点滞后,尽管按年率计算仍增长了20%,这已经很不错了。我想说的另一件事是我们经常遇到这个问题。所以我想围绕估值来解决这个问题。当你看市场时,有不同种类的股票。正确的。它们趋向于循环。

美国和国际市场表现优异

这张图表显示的是美国股票,然后是国际发达国家股票紫色的是国际股票跑赢大盘的时间,灰色的是美国股票跑赢大盘的时间。你可以看到这些都是循环往复的,回溯到70年代早期。有几年国际做得更好,有几年美国国际,美国等等,如此往复。这里最大的异常点是右边这段很长的13年美国的表现继续优于国际市场。这可能有几个原因。但我认为,最大的,我想说回那些真正领先的科技股。当你想到在过去5年或10年里主导市场的技术领导者,主要是总部设在美国的公司,你的Netflix,你的谷歌,你的亚马逊,你的苹果等等。还有一些新兴市场的公司,比如中国大陆或台湾的腾讯或阿里巴巴,半导体或类似的公司。欧洲,亚洲,欧洲,澳大利亚等地都有很多很棒的产业。他们不一定在技术上占主导地位。 And I think that’s contributed to the relative outperformance of the US in the past 10 years or so. That being said, keep in mind that valuation matters and that a lot of the international markets are less expensive than the US markets. So when you look at, let’s say, like emerging markets, I know a lot of people talk about how US stocks have gone up so much and they’re at whatever level, you look at emerging markets, depending on what index in a lot of cases, they haven’t really changed in the last 15 years. So they’ve done pretty well lately. But if you stretch at that time horizon, more or less flat for a decade or more so not necessarily overvalued. So we own some of those in portfolios. If you look at the international developed, again, a little bit less expensive than the US, so we own some of those. If you look at value in small companies, they’ve done really well in the last 12 months, but had lagged for several years before that. So they’re not necessarily screaming cheap, but they’re a little bit less expensive than some of the large growth companies.

部门收益波动

因此,我们试图使投资组合多样化,以获得这些不同部分的敞口。一直有人问我,我们应该买IT吗?如果信息技术是最好的,我们为什么不买呢?当你看我刚拿出来的这个图表,它是过去12个月的,从上到下,每个月都是堆叠排名。哪个部门表现最好?你知道,如果我们停下来,然后我说,嘿,这里有什么规律?好吧,我想我们都同意,真的没有什么模式。有很多疯狂的事情。这才是重点。关键是每个月都有不同的板块领先。 And if you look at what did best in the last year or so, this is for the year. You can see that the financial sector in the top right-hand column there did the best, up about 62% in the last 12 months. And yet there was only one month that it was the best performer. The flip side is that you can see that energy was the best performer in 3 of the months but was smack in the middle over the year. And so again, the idea here is that you don’t want to concentrate in just one sector at any point. Industry leadership definitely rotates on a regular basis.

资产类别回报波动(2006 - 2020年)

在不同的资产类别中也是一样的情况当你看同一张图表时,从上到下,不同的资产类别从表现最好的到表现最差的。现在我们看的是年份,从2006年到2020年,你可以看到每年的领导层都在轮换。你可以看到,房地产投资信托基金多年来表现最好。你也可以看到,尽管如此,他们并不是最好的。如果你看一下右边第二列的年化回报率,他们做得不错,但不是最好的。然后你可以看看新兴市场。同样的事情。他们是三年来表现最好的球队,但也不是最好的。结果是,在这个特定时期,年化表现最好的是大公司股票。在任何一年里,他们都不是表现最好的。 So, again, the idea here being a couple things. One is that there’s not necessarily a pattern. Two is that just because something did the best the prior year doesn’t mean it’s going to continue. Right. So the idea of jumping into just what’s done the greatest doesn’t necessarily float. But the third is this, if you look at the line going through at the white bars and the line, that’s asset allocation, not just some random diversified portfolio. What you see is that it’s never the best and it’s never the worst. And I’ve talked about this often, but that’s really, to me, the concept of diversification. And the way I think about it is, if you went to the fair and they have the game with the balloons where you pay a dollar, you throw a dart, you pop a balloon and everybody’s a winner. And so you get a junky plastic whistle. But behind a few of the balloons is a big stuffed animal, a big panda bear that- that’s what you really want to get. And so your goal is to go up there, pay a dollar, throw a dart and get the big panda bear. But what are your odds of actually doing that? They’re not very good. Right. And so what you could do instead is you could walk up with $20, buy 20 darts, throw them and your odds of getting the panda have gone way up. However, the best possible outcome is one dart, $1, get the panda. So by paying $20, in that case spreading your bets around, you’ve eliminated the possibility of getting the best possible return. Right. And that’s what diversification is. The best possible return is to each year pick whatever asset class or whatever sector is going to do the best. Right. So when you diversify, you lower the ceiling, you’re reducing the possibility of getting the best returns, but you’re also raising the floor because you’re increasing the odds of getting acceptable returns. And that’s the way we view diversification, is you’re making a conscious decision to maybe lower the ceiling as opposed to putting all your chips in one basket. But you raise the floor and you increase the odds of getting the returns you need, again based on your plan in order to get where you want to go financially. For most people with their financial goals, we find that that’s a pretty good tradeoff.

股票市场势头-股票市场

我还想指出这个图表,我周围有很多问题。自2020年春季股市大幅下跌以来,股市一直表现良好。它们还能继续上涨吗?这张图显示的是标准普尔500指数从1970年以来,有6.5个例子,标准普尔指数下跌超过30%,分别是1970年,1974年,1987年,2002年,2009年,然后是2020年。那6- 6个股票下跌超过30%的例子又算得了什么呢?你可以看到,正如你所预料的,如果你从很高的地方扔了一个橡皮球,它会弹很多。正确的。所以你可以看到浅蓝色的栏是在急剧下降之后的一年里的表现。不出所料,你在这些方面都获得了稳定的回报,对吧?从17%到56%不等。 So historically, when markets fall sharply, they tend to rebound sharply in the next year. But what I think is interesting and again, this is just statistics, it doesn’t guarantee the future, but it does give you some sort of indication, is that statistically, the dark blue is the second year following the sharp drop. So what happens? Sharp decline, sharp rebound, and then historically, you’ve gotten pretty good returns the next year as well, averaging 18% in the second year after a sharp drop. And it makes sense, right? Think of the analogy again. If you’re on a 10-story building, you drop a rubber ball, it hits the ground, it bounces really high, but it’s not like it then goes back down to the ground and stays there. It goes back down, hits the ground. It might not bounce quite as high the second time, but it still tends to get a pretty healthy rebound. And so, again, no guarantee that the next year is going to be as good as the prior year. But based on the evidence, there’s also no guarantee that just because we’ve gone up a bunch of markets need to fall either.

联邦赤字-联邦净债务(累积赤字)

1940-2031财年末国会预算办公室基线预测占GDP的百分比

我想换个话题谈谈未来的道路以及赤字和通货膨胀。这一切都包含在一起,税收。如果你看看联邦赤字,这张图表可以追溯到40年代你可以看到第二次世界大战时的高峰。然后我们偿还了债务,这大概保持了15年。然后随着金融危机的爆发,它真的增加了。从那时起,上升到国内生产总值的103%,这是他们衡量国家债务的一种方式。所以债务明显增加了很多,尤其是在新冠肺炎之后。我感兴趣但我不确定我是否相信的是,这是CBO,国会预算办公室的预测。你可以看到过去15年的持续增长然后突然间,他们说我们不会再积累更多的债务它会逐渐消失,并在未来10年保持不变。如果你问我,如果我们在过去的10到15年里花光了所有这些钱,我不明白为什么会突然有停止消费的冲动。 I haven’t really heard a single politician say that lately. So the deficit is reasonably high. My guess is it continues to at the very least, stay at high levels and potentially go higher. So what does that mean? Well, how do you pay off a deficit? And there are 4 ways and I’ve talked about this in the past, is that you could default on your debt. I don’t think we’re going to do that or don’t spend a lot of time worrying about it. You can grow your way out. So if you have a certain level of taxes and you get more economic growth, that’s more revenue to pay down the debt. I tend to think that if we went that route and had better growth, we’d probably just spend the money. Or I could be wrong there. The two main ways are you either inflate your way out or you tax your way out, right.

美国债务时钟截至2021年7月8日

所以你会增加税收以偿还债务或者你会增加通货膨胀以用更不值钱的美元偿还债务。这只是另一种看待它的方式,我们所处的情况。这里有很多数字。这是美国的债务时钟。这让我有点沮丧,因为每次我这么做,我们又增加了价值5000亿美元的债务。你可以看到在左边,左边,上边,美国国债大约是285000亿美元。这是一个带有t的万亿,这是一个相当大的数字。当你看人均债务时,这是我喜欢的方式。每个公民的债务是8.5万美元。然后我用绿色表示的是联邦税收收入然后是每个公民的税收收入。 I think of a business and you’ve got revenue and expenses. And if your revenue per citizen is $10,000 and your debt per citizen is $85,000, that math isn’t great. And it tells me that something has to happen to pay that off. As you know, we spend a ton of time talking about taxes. It’s one of the foundations of the company, one of the foundations of what we do with all of you. Taxes are scheduled to go higher at the end of 2025 based on current law. There’s certainly plenty of talk right now about taxes being increased sooner. I think most of my colleagues in our firm and potentially many of you in conversation think taxes over the next 5, 10, 20 years, whatever it is, are going higher. That’s why we spend so much time protecting against higher taxes and doing what we can to build asset diversification and tax diversification.

通货膨胀- CPI和核心CPI

“暂时的通胀”

但说到通货膨胀,情况正好相反。当你看它的时候,通货膨胀有点像恶魔。我之所以这么说,是因为它经常让人害怕,但却很少见到。如果你看看过去30多年,并没有太多的通货膨胀。事实上,它很少超过4%,尽管最近刚刚略高于这个水平。就在最近一两天,我们的通胀率达到了2008年以来的最高水平,当然是在高位。现在最大的争论是关于“短暂”这个词。暂时的。这意味着,我们在通胀中看到的峰值是暂时现象还是暂时现象?还是会更粘,更持久? The argument for it being more transitory, more just a passing thing, is that a lot of the inflation we’re seeing is because of Covid. Right? If people were stuck in their house and couldn’t spend and now you release them and they’ve got money in their pocket, they run out to spend. And then when you couple that with the fact that I don’t know, like rental car companies cut their fleets because they couldn’t rent cars during Covid. Now, I looked into renting a car a couple of months ago. It was like a $1000 a day for, like a little mini car, right? There are shortages because of chip plant issues and trade issues? You can’t get new cars and used cars. So prices are really high there. So there are some influences from Covid that are being blamed for some of the increase in inflation and the argument for transitory is that those will eventually pass through and you’ll get more normal inflation. The argument for more permanent inflation revolves around the fact that the economy is doing pretty well. And yet we’ve had a fair amount of economic stimulus and rebates and- and payments and stuff, which is pretty unusual. So consumer balance sheets are pretty good. You’re also in a situation where there’s a fair amount of capacity constraints among some companies and the ability for some companies to ramp up production. Isn’t that great? And then you’re seeing increases in minimum wage and stuff like that, and then wages paid in a lot of places. And whether that’s good or bad is an argument for another time. But the fact of the matter is that people in some of the lower-income tiers, if you look at the data, spend essentially everything that comes in, where people at the higher income levels tend to spend just the portion of what comes in. So if you increase wages to lower-income earners, they tend to spend that. The idea of those dollars cycling through the economy pretty quickly could make inflation more permanent. We’ll see. And so it’s like, all right, well, what do we think about inflation? Well, we think a couple things. One is that we’ve already built in a measure of protection in portfolios and in plans simply by running inflation in your financial plan at 3.7%. So we’re running inflation in all of our projections at the 100-year average. Lately in the last, I don’t know, 5, 10 years, inflation was below that. Even with the recent increase in inflation, we think that the fact that we used a 100-year average gives your plan a little bit of a stress test, a little bit of a conservative measure to- to help protect against higher inflation. The other part of it is that when we run inflation, we have different parts of the portfolio that do better in different environments. And so if you think about your portfolio and I’ll generalize it really widely, is there some US stocks? Right. And within there are companies that hopefully have some measure of pricing power. Right. I don’t know if you have Verizon as your phone carrier and they raised their monthly fee $5 a month. Are you going to get a new phone number and get rid of your phone and go through all that hassle because of that? No, you’re probably going to stick with it, right? Just to pick an example, if you have Netflix and they raise their monthly price $1, are you going can stop watching? So there’s a lot of companies that have pricing power, even in an inflationary environment. And frankly, corporate profits should be pretty good if there’s more dollars flowing through the economy. So we think that stocks in general give some protection against higher inflation. We also think international stocks give some protection because the very definition of inflation is that the dollar becomes less valuable, whereas a US investor, if the dollar is less valuable, that’s a net benefit for holding foreign stocks. So we think there’s some protection there. And then we look at the natural resources component that we hold for many people. And historically, commodities and natural resources have- have done well in an inflationary environment. So we think there’s some protection there. The flip side is the bonds and the bonds are there for the opposite, right?

截至2021年7月8日的10年期美国国债收益率

债券的存在使得如果相反的情况发生,而不是通货膨胀——就在几周前,市场上有很多关于美国和国外经济放缓的担忧。如果真是这样,那就好像,好吧,那么,什么能保护你呢?在这种环境下,债券往往会保值,甚至增值。因此,我们认为有一个对冲机制,它又回到了多元化投资,投资组合的一部分被设计成在通胀上升的情况下表现良好,而另一部分被设计成在通胀下降的情况下表现良好。不管是哪种方式,你都可以分配收入或用于重新平衡。我们还认为,当你看债券时,我们希望选择我们持有哪种债券。正确的。因此,如果你看看这张10年期国债的图表,可以追溯到过去十年左右,你知道,我认为有几件事。一个是,你可以看到2020年的急剧下降,从接近2%下降到约0.5%的历史低点。然后你还可以看到急剧反弹到1.75%,这导致了今年第一季度的表现,这是有记录以来最差的。但是,我的意思是,老实说,我认为大多数人,包括我自己,都会认为利率会继续走高,而且在过去3个月左右的时间里,他们实际上已经转了过来,并且大幅下降。因此,再一次证明了预测是相当困难的,特别是在利率方面。我还认为有趣的是,这是过去十年,看看范围,顶部是三分之一。

美国国债收益率曲线

如果我们看这里,这是过去10年的数据。灰色部分是国债的范围,然后是收益率曲线。你可以画出3个月,6个月,1年等等,5年,10年,20年,30年。然后画一条线穿过它。灰线是2013年12月31日。这只是一个选取的日期,只是作为一个例子。你可以看到紫色的线是2020年8月4日。这是低利率,绿色的线是上个月末。几天前,你可以看到我们基本上在范围的中间,可能稍微低于平均值,我提出来的原因是这两件事。一是,即使利率上升,他们很有可能,我们不一定认为他们会上升到5% 10% 15%之类的。 We don’t think you’re going to see a repeat of the 1980s or ‘70s. They’d probably stay within the range they’ve been in. So maybe they go from 1.5% to 2.5% or something like that, which would be a decent-sized move. But we’re not talking about a tremendous increase in rates. The other is that in order to protect against interest rates, we hold relatively short maturity bonds, which tend not to be as volatile as interest rates increase.

1900年以来的道琼斯指数

我想在这里结束,然后我们将邀请一些问题,关于1900年以来的道琼斯指数。你可以看到,在过去的120年里,我们取得了巨大的进步。我们从有效的0上升到35000,34000,差不多是这样。我已经计算过了。我们有很多问题,比如,嘿,道指35000美元是不是太高了或者随便选个指数,价格?我认为,重要的是要摆脱这种想法,嘿,市场创造了新高,所以它们一定很昂贵。市场通常会再创新高。它们会随着时间的推移而上升,就像你在这张图表上看到的那样。如果你紧缩的数字,我的意思是,如果道指继续增加未来——称之为剩余的21世纪——以同样的速度它历史上上涨了,你谈论陶氏水平在数百万,道指3000000点,道指5000000点,道指10000000点,这取决于你的化合物。正确的。 You know, like 8% on the Dow or 9% on the Dow, you’re talking like $6,000,000, right, at the end of this century. So those of you with grandkids, those grandkids might live to see a day in which there’s a celebration because the Dow crossed 5,000,000 for the first time. And they may have a really bad day where, hey, the Dow fell 400,000 points yesterday or whatever. And so the reason I bring it up is I think that right now, the idea of the Dow falling 4000- or 10,000 points would give us a heart attack. Right. But the reality is, is someday within most of your lifetimes, a 10,000 point swing in the Dow is probably going to be almost the expectation. So, you know, just cautioning away from it’s easy to get focused on numbers, new highs and stuff like that. And this isn’t me jumping on the table. Hey, you have to buy stocks or be bullish, because it’s not that. It’s just that if you think about it, just because a market has made new highs, it really has nothing to do with what’s going to continue from there. Markets tend to make new highs, hit higher numbers at different times. And if you think about it, just in the last 24 hours, you’ve all set a new all-time high for the number of steps you take in your lifetime, the number of breaths you’ve taken in your lifetime, the number of nights you’ve gone to sleep in your lifetime. Right. New highs are a part of life. Why should financial markets be any different? Let’s pause there. That’s all I have for slides. But let’s- let’s see what kind of questions Andi has for me.

问题

安迪:现在,我们唯一的问题来自大卫,他说,“新冠病毒Delta变种在你的雷达上吗?在什么时候我们会根据它可能产生的影响做出调整?”

布莱恩:是的,我的意思是,我想很明显这已经在雷达上了。我不是科学家或生物学家,所以我不知道它会有什么影响。这绝对是件好事。另一方面,正如我读到的故事,如果人们,你知道,也许接种疫苗的人会受到保护。所以我不知道真相是什么。当它开始影响投资组合、市场和经济时,它就会引发潜在的变化。正确的。我们不会根据新闻中发生的事情改变投资组合,不管它是什么。这将是,嘿,对经济有什么影响?对金融市场有什么影响?然后是投资组合?如果这真的很重要,那么我们会做出潜在的影响或改变。

安迪:好吧,下一个问题是理查德提出的,“你对今年剩余时间的数字货币有什么看法?”我投资组合的2%都在里面。”

布莱恩:我-我的预测是,它会上下波动,非常不稳定。那差不多是我能到达的最接近的地方了。我的意思是,看起来事情的真相是,我不知道。我确实认为数字货币不仅仅是一时的时尚。我不认为这是会消失的东西。你看,即使是中央银行,无论是在中国还是在欧洲,美国,都在谈论推出数字货币,我认为数字货币,我认为它背后的基础设施将继续存在。我认为最终,我不认为会出现像现在这样的100或1000种数字货币。我认为其中一些将得到巩固。至于我对其中任何一个的预测,我都不知道。我确实认为它们将继续非常非常不稳定,因为这正是历史告诉我们的。对于投资组合中的一小部分,取决于你想要完成什么,这可能是一个很好的选择,也可能不是一个很好的选择。

安迪:好的。目前,这就是我们面临的所有问题。当然,如果我们有更多问题,你可以随时给你的顾问发电子邮件,也可以给布赖恩发电子邮件。你可以把这些电子邮件发送到info@PureFinancial.com,我们会确保他们被送到正确的地方。我还想提一下我们的客户,我们正处于年度纯财务顾问客户调查的中间。所以你可能已经收到了关于这个的电子邮件。如果你还没有填好,今晚11:59是你最后的机会。这也是参加100美元亚马逊礼品卡抽奖的最后机会。所以我现在就把这个调查的链接放到聊天室里。所以如果你还没有填满。那就在今晚午夜前开始吧。Ray说:“非常好的演示文稿和幻灯片。谢谢,伙计们。”万博manbet提款

布莱恩:是的,谢谢。我们非常感谢。是的,如果你也有时间填写调查,这是很有帮助的,因为我们想知道什么是好的,什么是我们可以改进的之类的。所以,我可以诚实地告诉你,我们花了相当多的时间来查看——什么回来了,然后试图继续——我们的——我们的目标总是改进,帮助你们所有人达到你们想去的地方。所以如果你花点时间填一下,我们很感激。是的。就像安迪说的,如果有其他问题,请提问。我们很乐意回答这些问题。如果你想在这样的网络研讨会上看到什么话题,请告诉我们。是的,保持健康。 Stay safe. And yeah, wishing everybody nothing but the best.

安迪:好吧。非常感谢你,布莱恩,感谢你加入我们。祝你今天愉快。

请订阅我们的YouTube频道。

读布莱恩·佩里的新书,忽视炒作:超越媒体驱动的混乱的金融策略

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