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布莱恩积极参与金融市场超过20年,曾担任投资组合经理、策略师和交易员。在Pu万博manbet提款re Financial Advisors, Brian利用他丰富的投资背景和对行为金融学的关注,帮助客户在动荡的市场中导航,并保持朝着他们的财务目标前进。之前[...]

2021年已经过去一半了。金融市场处于什么位置?Pure的执行副总裁兼研究总监Brian Perry, CFP®,CFA®提供更新和分析,包括通胀上升对你的投资意味着什么,随着冠状病毒消退,市场的下一步是什么,以及2021年剩余时间的金融战略。

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转录

如何看待股票和债券

我想从如何看待股票和债券开始。你知道,当你建立一个投资组合时,你需要考虑一些事情。其中最重要的一点就是你想在晚上能够入睡。正确的。那么问题就来了,你会冒什么样的风险?你应该冒什么样的风险?那么你应该担心你的股票走势吗?让我在这里画一点。

你晚上怎么睡得着?

  • 你在哪里冒险?
  • 什么是适合你的资产组合?
  • 你需要担心股票的走势吗?

事实上,我的书法和美术二年级都不及格,现在我用手指在白板上画画。所以请容忍我,但你会明白这些概念的。我想做的是带你做一个练习,如果你在家里,你像大多数人一样,他们出去,买一些共同基金或股票和债券,然后他们得到一个组合,这真的没有逻辑可言。所以我想给你们做一个练习,教你们如何考虑建立投资组合,而不是告诉你们应该买什么股票或诸如此类的东西。但是如何思考你应该买多少股票,多少债券,多少现金,诸如此类的东西。

这一切都始于你的要求回报率是多少?你需要多少钱才能达到你的财务目标?我在这里编一个数字,叫它6。我就不画百分比了,但你们得到了,6%这个数字没有魔力。我只是举个例子。因为数学计算很简单。然后假设你有两种投资选择。你可以买大公司的股票,也可以买小公司的股票。最后,大公司的股票会给你带来一些回报,它们会给你8% And the small company stocks are going to get you some returns, too. They’re going to get you 10%. But now, in exchange for 10%, that basket of small-company stocks is going to bounce around a lot more. It’s going to go up more. It’s going to go down more. But it’ll get you higher returns over time. Again, these are hypothetical numbers, but the order of magnitude in the real world is about the same. Your choices then become, do you buy the large companies or small companies? Your other choice is, how much money do you put under the mattress? That’s your other investment choice. And so hypothetically, let’s say that your two choices, you decide you’re gonna buy large-company stocks. Some of your money is going to go in there. Some is going to go under the mattress. You need to get to the 6% number to meet your goal. So what are you going to do is you’re going to put about 75% of your money into large company stocks. 75% of 8 is 6. You meet your goal. The other 25% goes under the mattress. Right. Good news under the mattress, you’re not going to lose anything. It’s not going anywhere. Bad news is it doesn’t grow and it could be lumpy as all get out. Right? If instead you buy the small company stocks, though, again, more volatile, more risk. But if you follow the same exercise, you would need to put about 60% of your wealth in the small companies, 60% of 10 is 6. Again, you’re going to get your required rate of return. You’re going to reach your destination. But now 40% of your wealth is going under the mattress where it’s not going to fluctuate. Right. So the idea becomes that even though these large company stocks may be a little bit less volatile than the small company stocks, the idea that you could have more money under the mattress might make sense. Right. And here’s why.

假设你有100万美元,我把它写成1MM。你有一个60/40的组合。在这个例子中,你有60万美元的小公司股票,你有40万美元,或者40万美元在床垫下。现在,假设你每年从你的投资组合中提取4万美元。每年,你需要从你的财富中抽出4万美元。如果你一年赚四万的话。床垫里有40万美元做除法,得到10。10是年数,这是你从股票中取钱之前的年数。大家可以这样想,下次有人来问你,你认为通胀的可能性如何?如果经济再次放缓怎么办? What if this market that’s been doing so well falls? What about the next election, et cetera, et cetera? You can say, I don’t care. You can say I don’t enjoy watching the market fall and it might well fall. But I know that I’ve got 10 years of spending underneath the mattress before I need to touch these dollars. And that’s how you think about building a portfolio, is you look for what rate of return you need to meet your goal? And then what’s the least amount of risk you can take in order to get to that goal? Again, nobody ever got on a plane and signed up for turbulence, but everybody wants to reach their destination. If you’re flying from here to New York, you want to make sure you get there. That’s the 6%. Focusing on having as much as possible underneath the mattress, that’s signing up for less turbulence along the way.

回归均值仍然是一件事:2020年11月6日前后的市场回报

在这个图表中,有很多数据,但如果你关注一些事情,灰色的是去年的表现。这基本上是从Covid开始的。正确的。从新冠疫情开始,到11月,再到大选。正确的。你会发现有些事情做得很糟糕。这并不奇怪,因为世界正在分崩离析,人们无法离开自己的房子,能源股表现不佳。航空公司也没有。如果你不会飞。为什么航空公司会做得很好? Banks, hotels and resorts. Right. How many people went on a cruise in 2020? Probably not a lot. Right. And then you look at what did well, down here in gray, online retail. Well, if I can’t leave my house, I’m going to do a heck of a lot of shopping on Amazon. I’m almost positive I do because- I think it’s more my wife, to be honest with you, but every single day there’s packages and boxes packing up from Amazon, really single-handedly supporting that stock price. Maybe some of you can relate. Home improvement, if you’re stuck at home, you might as well fix up the house. Right. You’re there a lot. So you look at the stocks that did well, not a surprise. Groceries, you still need to eat.

但现在让我们从选举到现在的时间开始向前闪光。正确的。看看做得好。所有这些能量股票都开始做得很好。在大流行期间遭受痛苦的航空公司和巡航和追踪以及我们开始朝大流行的结束并转移选举时遭受了很好的事情。通过同样的令牌,那些在线零售和家庭改善股票和杂货股,他们做得很好,他们并不是如此,但他们有小的损失,小得多,几乎和大流行的输家。带来这一点的观点是记住市场在循环中移动的古老谚语。最后一次最好的是最好的这次可能不做什么。这将是UPS和Downs,它真的很重要,最近真的很重要,因为逆转均值是金融市场的一件事。

为什么多元化?2006-2020年各年度资产类别表现

如果你想要更多的证明,我会给你看这个万花筒。如果有人还记得高中化学课上的元素周期表。正确的。所以我们已经从2006年到2020年度过了最好的年份。然后我们得到了不同资产类别的年回报率,股票从高到低堆积在一起。你可以看到房地产投资信托有好几年。他们也有过不太好的岁月。你可以看到这里的商品有一段时间表现不太好。这是大公司股票,小公司股票。但如果你在家里看着这个,你可能会眯着眼睛试图找到这个图表中的模式。 And the pattern is simply that there is no pattern. It’s random. What did best in one year may not be the best the next. I mean, we had a pretty good run here for real estate investment trusts in some of these years. But it turns out that they didn’t do the best over time. There are kind of in the middle, right. So the idea here is look at the line. The line is an asset allocation portfolio. It’s a mix of all of these asset classes. And what you see is that never did the best, but it also never did the worst. It kind of went through the middle. And folks, that’s what diversification is. When you diversify, you are lowering the ceiling on your possible returns, but you’re raising the floor. Think about it like this. The Del Mar Fair is, I believe, still going on at a very low level this year, right, over by my house. And so you go to the carnival and there’s a game, there’s balloons on a wall. And the idea is you walk up, you pay $1, you throw a dart, you hit the balloon and you win a crummy plastic whistle. But behind a couple of those balloons is a gigantic stuffed panda. And that’s what you want to win for your kids or your grandkids. So if you walk up and you just get one dart and you throw it and you get that panda, you’re a hero. But what are the odds of getting that? If instead you walk up and you pay $20, you get 20 darts, you start throwing it, well, you’ve drastically increased your odds of getting the panda that you want. Now, the best possible outcome is you pay $1 for one dart and win the panda. If you diversify, if you buy 20, you’ve lowered the ceiling, you removed the possibility of getting the single best asset class, just like if you’re trying to pick what does best year to year, what’s going to do best next year. If you stop trying to do that, you’re going to lower your potential returns. But with the panda throwing 20 darts, you raise the floor, you increase the odds, you get the outcome you want. That’s diversification in a nutshell. It’s lowering the ceiling. It’s raising the floor and increasing the odds. You get what you want out of your finances. That’s the goal for most people trying to save for, enter into, any final financial goal and then particularly into retirement is, you need to be getting 20% a year is great, picking the best stock, the best asset class, but avoiding those devastating years or periods when all your money’s in one or two asset classes. Imagine if you had concentrated in commodities. They did really well for a period in the mid 2000s. But look at this run. Second worst performing asset class in 2011, worst in 2013, ‘14, ‘15 and ‘16. Second worst in ‘17. Imagine if you’ve moved all your money when commodities were doing great in the mid 2000s into commodities just when they suffered. Right. So again, that concept of diversification is really powerful. Depending on what your goals are.

长期保费复合

更重要的是,这样想。如果你带着气球去参加狂欢节,那里的工作人员说,嘿,老板没有告诉我大熊猫在哪里,但我在这里工作了十年,我可以告诉你,角落里的黄色大气球似乎有更多的熊猫?嗯,你可能不会把所有的20个飞镖都扔向那些黄色的气球,但你可以再扔几个。有道理,对吧?你正在增加你成功的几率。金融市场也发生了类似的事情。随着时间的推移,有不同种类的股票,大公司和小公司。大公司可能是麦当劳,小公司可能是丹尼斯。还有价值股和成长股。价值股受到的打击更大一些。它们比较便宜。他们的商业模式可能并不令人兴奋。他们可能不会成长,但你付出的更少。成长型股票是快速扩张的公司。也许是你的特斯拉之类的。无论什么一家公司的发展真的很快,但你为此付出了很多,对吗?随着时间的推移,学者们对这些数据进行了剖析,并说,好吧,什么做得更好?大公司还是小公司做得更好?价值或增长如何?他们发现不同种类的股票表现更好。

所以,如果你看一下数据,该数据可以追溯到大萧条之前,1929年的权利。如果这时候你就会把$ 100插入所有的大公司中,S&P500的基本上相当于,你买所有这些,事实证明,今天你得约$ 60万吧?所有的大公司买过去的一个世纪那么$ 100到$ 600,000这是资本主义的力量就在这里。您的时机不是很好,大萧条和二战前的投资权利。但事实证明,如果你只是喜欢好公司的发展,有些步履蹒跚,一些企业走出去,一些扩大,一些新进入者进来了。但是,你只是不停地购买所有这些,表现得非常美妙。但是,学者们发现的是,而不是购买所有这些,让我们来看看,而不是购买这一切,如果我们能够在这里找到一个橡皮擦。相反,如果你只是在这里买的,你只要专注于大型价值型股票,而不是$ 600,000你有关于$ 1,300,000。所以约两倍的钱通过购买较大的值,而不是所有的大。有一点违反直觉。 Right. You might think that that growth stocks do better than value because they’re expanding more quickly, but they don’t. Turns out value stocks do better. Right. Well, the way I think about that is that- see if my eraser works here- the way I think about that is if you’re in real estate, think about this. If you were looking at a couple of condos to rent and they were both, they were both pretty similar, similar block, one was going to pay $1000 a month in rent. One was going to pay $1500 and the price on one was a little bit lower than the other- you know price matters. If you can buy a similar set of cash flows for less money in real estate, you’re usually going to do better off. The same concept holds true in the stock market. Now, I mentioned small companies before had higher returns. How much higher? Well, it turns out that if instead of buying all the large companies 100 years ago you bought all the small companies, instead of $600,000, you’d have about $2,700,000. So about 4X times more money for buying all the small companies over all the large companies. Now, it would have been a bumpy ride. There would have been more turbulence, but I’ll take $2,700,000 over $600,000 any day.

好吧,如果我们现在知道小公司比大公司做得好,价值公司比成长型公司做得好,我们就在这里打电话。如果我们买下所有的小价值公司呢?好吧,如果你买下所有的小价值公司,结果你会得到大约7800000美元,而不是600000美元,而不是1300000美元,而不是2700000美元。因此,在过去的90年里,在所有的大公司中,大约有13倍多的资金购买了小价值的产品。这是一个非常显著的差别,对吧,7800000美元超过600000美元。我住在圣地亚哥,即使是今天的房价,如果你足够努力的话,我想你可以在圣地亚哥找到7800000美元的东西。你可能不得不降低你的标准,或者找一个稍微小一点的房子,但可能会有一些东西。因此,建议不是你把所有的钱都花在小价值上。你只需要看看你持有的是哪种股票,因为很多人最终都集中在大公司,尤其是成长型大公司。这些概念,小的对大的,价值对增长的,这并不总是有效的,但随着时间的推移它会起作用。所以不能保证你每年都能得到你想要的回报。

价值溢价

这些概念,小与大,价值与增长,并不是一直有效的,但它会随着时间的推移而起作用。所以不能保证你每年都能得到你想要的回报。这是价值溢价,这里你看到的是价值股相对于1932年的成长股的5年滚动周期。蓝色表示价值型股票比增长型股票表现更好的年份。当你看到红色的时候,增长型股票比价值型股票表现更好。我想指出几点。第一,蓝色比红色多得多。这是有道理的。如果价值型股票的表现要优于成长型股票,它们应该更经常地做得更好。和他们。 But the other thing I’ll point out is that it’s not always blue. There are periods in which growth stocks outperform value stocks. In fact, some of those periods have been quite recently. Since the great financial crisis of 2008, 2009, growth stocks have mostly outperformed value stocks. It’s changed a little bit here in the last 6, 9 months. Value stocks have started to pick up and do better, but there is a long stretch where growth stocks outperform. So, again, two things. One is that you’re not putting all of your money in value or growth. You want some of both so that when you’re getting the blue periods, you’re doing OK and when you get the red periods, you’re doing OK. That’s diversification concept.

规模保费

另一件事是规模溢价——所以这看着年大公司做得更好比小或小做的更好,在海蓝宝石的颜色,我不确定我们得到这些颜色是从哪里来的,这非常像1970年鲨鱼粗毛地毯的颜色,但是这里有绿色的aqua海洋——任何时候你看到,也就是小公司比大公司做得更好的年份。然后是多少,比0%到5%更好,5%到10%更好,等等。如果你看到浅灰色,那就是小公司表现不佳的年份。大公司表现更好。同样的道理也适用于价值与增长,随着时间的推移,你会期望投资组合倾向于小而有价值,但不是每次都这样。这就是事实。

但是,这些都是一些想法,一些关于如何通过将其聚集成价值股票和小型股票来从投资组合获得更多概念。每次都不工作,但它随着时间的推移工作。这一想法是你将把你的投资组合集中在你有最佳成功的地方。您也将建立那些您承认您可能降低天花板的投资组合。这可能对每个人来说都不是正确的。建立重大财富的最佳方式是将所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里,并拥有右篮子。世界上最富有的人在房地产或一家公司中拥有集中的职位,或者是那样增长的公司。他们开始了一家公司,这是建立重要财富的最佳方式。但它也不是保持财富的好方法。保持财富的最佳方式是多元化,建立各种投资的结合。 Figure out what your required rate of return is, make sure your portfolio is going to get there, and then tilt the scales in your favor by taking advantage of what the research tells you to do with your portfolio.

但是,集中的姿势也可以很好。它们也可能导致灾难。在进入话题话题之前,我先讲个小故事我认识一个人在20世纪90年代在嘉信理财工作这个人在20世纪90年代,公司向员工发放股票期权就像在万圣节分发糖果一样。就像,嘿,你在工作,这是一些股票期权。如果你的公司做得很好,那就太好了。如果你还记得,那时候网络繁荣,嘉信理财提供网上交易。股票在上涨,他们的股票在飙升。有一位女士在那里工作,她根本不是高级职位的人。我不知道她一年赚的钱有没有超过5万美元,但她有股票期权。于是她在2000年30岁出头带着300万美元退休,搬到了毛伊岛。 That’s the power of a concentrated position, is that you buy something, it’s soars and you get to retire in your early 30s to Maui. Here’s the power of diversification or why you might want to diversify, because the second part of that story is that several years later, this woman went back to work at Schwab, where she still is today. And why? Because she never sold any of that stock. And after the dotcom boom went bust, the stock fell and her $3,000,000 went to whatever, $200,000, $500,000, whatever it was, she could no longer stay retired and now she’s back at work.

问题

安迪,我们要转向更热门的部分了,关于我们目前所讲的有什么问题吗?

安迪:第一个来自我们的好朋友蝙蝠侠。他想知道,“你喜欢众筹吗,比如Fundrise还是Ashcroft?那么你认为房地产对分散投资有什么作用?”

这是两个很宽泛的问题顺便说一下,你好,蝙蝠侠。是的,我的意思是,你知道,众筹是可以的,我想这是你投资的领域,对吗?你做了多少调查?不存在任何不良资产类别。这取决于具体的投资和你做了多少研究。所以我不是众筹专家。我知道任何类型的投资都有好的项目和坏的项目。我会说你可能想要做额外的尽职调查因为通常我认为大多数人,如果他们可以从银行或股票发行或风险投资公司或其他地方获得资金,他们可能会走这条路。所以你在这些平台上获得的是想要在其他地方获得承销的交易。有时,这只是意味着有更多的机会,因为它正在从裂缝中溜走。 Other times there’s a reason the deal wouldn’t get underwritten. And so you definitely want to do your due diligence. Yeah, I like real estate. I mean, I own rentals. I think that it can be good. You just need to be honest with yourself what you’re buying real estate for. We hear a lot of people like, hey, I’m going to buy real estate for cash flow in retirement. And then you look at what the projected cash flow is going to be and its break even, or they’re making $200 a month for the next 20 years. So you buy real estate in San Diego. It goes up over time, historically. It doesn’t necessarily cash flow that well. Right. You buy real estate in Memphis or Dallas. Maybe the appreciation is not there, but maybe the cash flow’s better. So it’s figuring out what is your financial goal? What is your financial plan for getting there? And then what role does real estate play? And if it plays a role, then yeah, real estate can be great.

安迪:好,下一个问题,实际上,我们有另一个蝙蝠侠的问题,他说,“有点跑题,但我想听听你对1031转换成夏令时的意见。我还想知道您对lirp作为免税退休储蓄工具的看法。”

是的,所以我赌第二个,因为我不熟悉——我遇到过,但已经有一段时间了,所以我不会自称是专家。1031交易,这个问题的意思是,如果你拥有价值不菲的房地产,然后卖掉它,有时你要交税。如果你是1031,这是一个税收漏洞,允许你搬进类似类型的房产,基本上滚动你的成本基础,你不支付交易税。所以这对很多人来说是一个很受欢迎的策略,帮助他们积累了大量的财富。1031-ing,而不是房地产,DST,这意味着特拉华州法定信托,这些基本上是专业投资管理公司或房地产管理公司汇集各种投资或投资者,投资于可能比某人自己负担得起的更大的项目。也许是一栋公寓楼之类的。所以我想说,从税收的角度来看,1031可以很好地为你省钱。如果你没有确定一个具体的财产,我认为DST可能是有意义的。甚至在某些情况下,如果你不想为拥有实际财产而头疼,夏令时也是有意义的。与众筹一样需要注意的是。 I mean, there are good deals and bad deals and you just need to do your research, right? It’s- it’s like saying, hey, are stocks good or bad? Well, it depends on what stock you buy. I would say it’s the same thing with the concept of 1031-ing and 1031-ing it to a DST could be sound. But then it comes down to the specifics of the deal.

Andi:这是从布伦特。“你可以帮助确定是什么让一个值,大,生长或小的股票?”

布莱恩:对,这是个好问题。简而言之,人们有不同的定义。让人困惑的是,不管是基金经理还是像标普或道琼斯这样的指数创造者都会定义他们如何区分小股和大股。一般来说,大公司是宇宙中最大的10%。想想谷歌,摩根大通,富国银行,英特尔等公司。然后你的小公司往往是90%的小公司像Denny 's或Foot Locker之类的。所以这些公司不是不可靠的,但他们比其他公司要小得多。碰巧的是,如果你看看它们在宇宙中的权重,我不知道,最大的100家,500家最大的公司,我们称之为3000家,占整个股票市场权重的90%其余90%的股票名称只占市场实际权重的10%左右。所以市场的旧规则肯定是由最大的公司主导,小公司和,不好意思,价值和增长,类似的,有不同的指标可以看。 Some people will look at the price earnings ratio. Some people will look at book to price. We- we should look at book to price, as well as PE ratio and some other ones. And really what you’re just doing is you’re just carving out and you’re saying stocks that based on these accepted valuation metrics fall in let’s say the upper third of the most expensive, those would be growth stocks. And then stocks that are on the bottom third of the valuation spectrum fall into value stocks. That’s the most common way to do it.

安迪:好了,问题都问完了,我们回到幻灯片上吧?

后冠状病毒世界的市场前景

国债

Brian:是的,让我们回到幻灯片。所以在科迪德世界的市场展望市场。和lo和beold,第一个幻灯片是什么?这是国债。你们中的一些人可能听过一些谣言,我们最近花了一些钱。有些人可能会受益于此。赤字处于水平 - 或累计债务 - 对不起,自第二次世界大战以来是在未见的水平。由于多种原因,政府一直在积极地花钱。即使在导致大流行的岁月中,他们肯定会花钱让我们摆脱巨大的金融危机。但后来他们在那之后继续花钱。 Everybody’s got opinions politically and stuff, so I won’t touch on that. But I will say that from an economic perspective, if you have kind of revisionist history in a perfect world, when the economy is reasonably good like it was in the mid-2010s, you’d want to be paying down debt, not accumulating debt. I mean. Right, everybody at home has a personal balance sheet that when times are tough, maybe you put something on the credit card, but then when you get a bonus, you pay it off. The government theoretically should work the same way. And then certainly in response to Covid, there have been some massive payments. These forecasts for what the debt will look like, I think are pretty conservative. I’ve seen other ones where the debt is more like 150% of gross domestic product out here in 10 years or something like that. So we’ve accumulated a lot of debt. And one of the concerns that we get is, is two things. One is how are we going to pay this back and how? There’s four ways to reconcile a large debt. You can default. I do not think the US government is going to default on Treasury bonds. There may- now the caveat is at some point you may see a technical default because of some government impasse where they choose not to pay interest for a few months or something like that. But that’s different. I don’t think that they’re truly not going to be good and paying back the debt. You can grow your way out. So if the economy takes off, the idea is that for a given tax level, if you get more economic growth, you collect more taxes, you pay back the debt. I haven’t seen any signs that either a) the economy is going to grow at that rate or b) that those excess dollars, if they did come in, would be used to pay down the debt. But who knows? I think the two most common ways and the two most likely ways are you can tax your way out of it with higher taxes. And we’ll talk about that in a bit. Or you can inflate your way out of it, right. You can pay back the debt with dollars that aren’t worth as- as you can print more dollars. And so let’s talk about a little bit.

通货膨胀:二战以来生活成本增加

这是二战以来的生活成本。我认为有几件事需要注意。一个是生活成本在过去的90年里增加了13x。一张电影票在1940年可能是1美元,现在是13美元,差不多是这样。正确的。所以随着时间的推移,它们会变得更贵。但你可以说这是一个相当缓慢的通胀上升。它并不是飙升,只是逐渐上升。而现实是,你确实需要某种程度的通胀。

通货膨胀已被抑制

因此,每个经济学家最担心的不是通胀。如果你是央行行长,你担心的是通货紧缩,物价下跌。因为经济学家认为他们知道如何治疗通货膨胀。通货紧缩真的很难。如果你想要证据,看看日本。自上世纪90年代初以来,他们一直试图摆脱通缩,但一直未能如愿。美联储的目标是2%的通胀率。他们这样做的原因是,他们认识到他们对通胀的跟踪是不精确的。所以如果他们的目标是2%如果它说2%,实际上可能是1.25%。可能是2.5%。 It’s a blunt instrument that they’re measuring. And what they don’t want to do is have it drop too close to zero, again with that deflation. So you feel like 2% is a level at which it won’t get too excessive, inflation won’t take off. But you’re also not going to be flirting with falling into deflation. And what you see here is that inflation has been pretty muted for most of the last 30 years. You had the large inflationary period in the 1970s into the 1980s, but since then it’s almost never been above 4%. I mean, to be honest, and in a lot of cases and I’ve talked about this in the past, is that inflation is a little bit like the boogeyman. It’s often feared but rarely seen. So I think some of the fears of inflation are set by people out of experience, high inflation, back with the 1970s and stuff and what that can do to an economy. Now, that being said, I think two things. One is that we certainly have seen inflation tick up here recently. It’s still relatively low. And I think the argument at this point is, is inflation transitory in the sense of, is it just a function of people that were trapped in their house and that now can go out and spend money again? Or is inflation more permanent? And is it here to stay with these higher prices and this elevated economic activity? My personal opinion is that I do not believe that the slightly higher inflation is transitory. I think that there are- certainly there are supply chain constraints in places and stuff like that. But I actually think inflation is higher now than it was several years ago. And I think it will continue to go higher for a multitude of reasons.

然后就变成了两件事。一个是,它会失去控制吗?二是,你会怎么做?第一个问题的答案是,我不认为通胀会失控。我认为它会比过去10年或20年更高。但我不认为我们会回到20世纪70年代。我认为,如果我们一直在1%到3%的范围内增长,我认为我们在未来几年将会在2%到4%或5%的范围内增长。这将导致更高的通胀,但不会过度。那只是我的看法。但重要的是市场可以适应更高的通胀,市场可以适应几乎任何事情。 And that’s an important lesson. Right. Here’s what markets have trouble with: markets have trouble with sudden movements that were unanticipated. So if inflation runs at 3% or 4% for the next 10 years, markets are already talking about that. It’s not going to upset the apple cart. What upsets the apple cart is if markets expect inflation to creep towards 3% or 4%, call it 3%, and all of a sudden next year, it’s running at 5.5% or 6%. Right. It’s unanticipated and it’s a sudden increase. It’s not- remember, look at the long-term chart of how inflation has changed. It’s been gradual. If all of a sudden you get a spike and it’s not an anticipated spike, that’s when you see markets fall sharply. I don’t quote Donald Rumsfeld a whole lot, but Rumsfeld had a quote where he said ‘there are the things we know, the things we know that we don’t know, and then there are things we don’t know that we don’t know.’ And I think that it’s that last it’s the unknown unknowns, as people call them, that upset markets. So I don’t think higher inflation is going to blow up the markets here in the future. Unanticipated spikes could temporarily upset it, but you would need a really significant, unanticipated move up to really destroy the stock market and the bond market.

市场收益与通货膨胀

但问题仍然是,你如何保护自己不受它的影响?我认为这是一个重要的问题。第一个是简单地看看市场在一段时间内的表现。正确的。这里有一些不同的时期。我之前也遇到过这样的问题,为什么这些数据只能追溯到1988年?原因并不是要排除70年代的高通胀。原因在于,其中一些资产类别在那之后才有数据可用。但是你看到的是不同的时期。你可以看到在左手边,高企且不断上升的通货膨胀。 Then in the top right you see high and falling inflation. The bottom is low and rising and the- on the bottom left- and then the bottom right is low and falling. And then you see how asset classes have done in these periods. And so there have been 10 times when inflation was high and rising. And you can see that assets actually did pretty good. Look at the returns there across the board, pretty strong. You have times when you had high and falling inflation, which has occurred 6 times. You can see that there are pretty strong returns there as well. You have low and rising inflation. I would characterize this is the period that we’re in right now, actually, 4 times since 1988. You can see returns for most things other than cash were pretty good. And then low and falling inflation 13 times. You can see returns were OK. You saw some losses for commodities and stuff. That’s usually an economy that’s falling into recession. So the bottom line is that most asset classes have done OK during times of falling inflation- or during times of various inflation periods.

我认为重要的是要记住,当你看一个投资组合的时候又回到了分散化的概念,你会根据不同的情况购买不同的东西。对吧?所以你所购买的投资在通胀较高,通胀较低,经济强劲或疲弱的情况下都会表现良好。正确的。这意味着你买的东西,你知道在某些环境下不会很好。通胀高得多,债券不会很好。你一进去就知道了。这就是你要做的。人们来找我。我的意思是,有人会打电话给我,仍然抱怨,嘿,通货膨胀上升了,我的债券表现不好。 And I’m like, yeah, I told you it wouldn’t. But your stocks and your real estate did well. The bonds are there in case the inflation falls, in case the economy is weak. Right. What if there’s a resurgence of Covid? What if markets have just gotten ahead of themselves or the economy and as we come out of this, the economy falls. Well, that’s when you want your bonds, right? What if there’s high inflation, higher than expected? Well, real estate, maybe you can reprice some of the rents. What about natural resources? They tend to do good with inflation. Foreign stocks, the definition of inflation is that the dollar is worth less. As a US based investor, the weaker the dollar is, the more your foreign stocks are worth. So you want a weaker dollar if you’re a US investor buying international stocks. So as you look at these different asset classes, you’re putting together a recipe, right? If you’re building a recipe for something and you put salt in there, it has a function. If you put sugar in there, it has a function. Those functions aren’t the same. The sugar – oil and vinegar in a salad, right. They do different things. You put them together and it’s a good combination. But if you- you don’t, you know that you want to just want to use one or the other. Right. And so the idea is that you’re building this recipe in order to do well or do OK across various time periods. Again, you’re raising the floor, lowering the ceiling. What you’re not trying to do is pick what asset class does best. Right. And here’s another reason why.

投资者是他们自己最大的敌人

看看这个图表。正确的。这是不同资产类别的20年回报。房地产左,高产债券,小公司,新兴市场。您可以看到标准普尔,您可以看到几个混合的60/40股票和债券组合,反之亦然。债券,现金,商品。看看普通投资者跌倒的地方。唯一更糟糕的是商品。这只是一个时间问题。如果我在不同的时间段运行,商品会更好。 The idea is that for all the time people spend trying to buy the best asset class, the average investor does worse than almost anything else. The average person at home would do better regardless of what they bought, despite the time is spent thinking about it. Why? Because they’re getting in and out of each of these asset classes at the wrong time. They’re worried about inflation. So they sell all their bonds and they buy all natural resources at just the wrong time. They’re worried about the level of stock markets. They sell all their stocks and they buy bonds at just the wrong time. And they get in and out again and again at the wrong time. Not accepting that when you build a portfolio, you are signing up for some things that are going to do well in environments and some things that aren’t going to do well. So unless you have perfect clairvoyance, which not too many people do, you have to be honest with yourself. What kind of changes should you be making in a portfolio? And the reality is you should be making small changes. Maybe you buy a little bit more or something, maybe buy a little bit less of something based on your outlook. But you don’t go all in or all out. You make small, incremental changes. I used to manage portfolios for large institutions. That’s what we would do. If the target for something was 10% we’re worried about inflation, and it’s going to do good. If there’s inflation, we might bump it up to 11% or 12%. It’s not as exciting as selling everything else and going all in, but it’s a way better recipe for success over the long run.

市场表现

市场表现,这是我最不想谈的,这里有很多数字,我想回答任何问题,谈论税收。我会忽略水平和一周回报,但如果你看右边的列,年初至今,一年,特别是看一年回报和三年累计,这些都很好,对吗?标准普尔35罗素2000。这是你过去几年的小股溢价,你的小公司去年上涨了58%。正确的。新兴市场增长了40%。然后再看看3年累积回报率。看看纳斯达克在过去3年里上涨了86点,你知道,所以这些都做得很好。即使是债券,其中一些也做得不错。

我提出这个问题的原因是,想想你的退休目标是什么样的回报。也许你的目标是6%,也许7%,也许10%,无论你在寻找什么。然后做数学运算,把这三年的累积数字除以3。只是简单的数学,对吗?因此,罗素2000指数在过去3年中每年上涨约12%或13%。标准普尔指数,这是最广泛的数字,上涨了约19%。纳斯达克指数上涨了大约,大约,30%。正确的。因此,如果你计算一下,你认为随着时间的推移,你的股票会有10%的收益,只是选择一个数字,债券可能会有3%或4%,很明显,展望未来,你预期的回报会稍微低一点。你只需要注册就可以了。你知道他们会有好的时期和坏的时期。我们经历了一段美好的时光。但你现在不想做的是离开,因为回报真的很好。你只需要小心,不要太投入。你想重新平衡,并确保如果你的股票增持,也许你会让它们恢复一致。

你认为税收将走向何方?美国债务钟

让我们回到白板上,再画一些图,讨论一下税收。这里你可以看到美国的国债是28436亿美元。这是一个相当大的数字。我想关注的是这个。这是你的人均债务,85,307美元。这是你欠每个纳税人的钱,22万6千美元。你们当中的纳税人,如果你们计算过自己最近的净资产,你们忘记了你还欠联邦政府的226000美元。然后我们看这里的人均收入,1万美元。现在,如果我们在做生意,对吧?如果你为每个公民带来1万美元的收入,但你欠每个公民8万5千美元,这不是很好的数学,对吧? At some point you need to rectify that. I talked about the other ways, the growing the defaulting, higher inflation. Well, the easiest way to get out of it is to generate more tax revenue from each citizen, right?

税收阶梯:长期资本利得率

你们中的很多人可能在过去见过税收三角关系。对吧?顶部是免税泳池;底部,你要交税;你的纳税延期了。免税的通常是罗斯。这里的问题是你把钱投进去没有任何税收优惠。有关于投资的规章制度。但当它出来的时候,它是零,这是一个很好的税率。这里是税后,没有任何规则或规定,它非常灵活,你把钱放进去,它会以特定的速度增长。 When you put it in, it establishes a basis. So that’s your cost basis. Anything on top of that you owe taxes on. If done right, you can get special rates of anywhere from 0% to 20%. Then your tax-deferred account, those are your IRAs, your 401(k)s, you put money in there pre-tax, it grows tax-deferred. But then when it comes out, it’s ordinary income of anywhere from 10% to 37%. Right. Three different pools of money, 3 different, very different tax treatment. What you want heading into retirement is diversification and some sort of flexibility. And here’s the issue. These are the tax brackets right now. You’ve got a 10%, a 12%, a 22%, a 24%, 32%, 35%, 37%. These are the lowest in history. They were really low 5 years ago and they got lowered further. There’s talk about raising these, especially up in here.

我还提到了长期资本利得率,如果你在这里,你在纳税池子里,你的长期资本利得率是0%如果你在这里做,你的长期资本收益率是15%如果你在这里,做得对,你的长期资本利得率是20%其中一个建议就是废除这个。如果你一直在上面,那就是39.6%所以几乎翻倍。

税务多样化策略

那你是做什么的?你要做的是确保你有一定的灵活性。愿你为罗斯爱尔兰共和军贡献一点力量,对吗。如果你50岁或50岁以下,你可以每年投入6000美元;如果你50岁以上,你可以投入7000美元。也许你把你的401(k)供款从这里转到罗斯账户。如果你超过50岁,你最多可以存26000美元,如果你不到50岁,你最多可以存19500美元。也许可以在这里做出一些贡献。正确的。我宁愿让资金以0%或20%的利率流出,而不是我们刚才讨论的长期资本收益率。但是你要非常敏感,特别是考虑到所有关于潜在变化的讨论。

也许今年有一些事情要做,对吧?也许你该考虑一下你在这里有没有收获。正确的。我们谈到了市场在过去几年里的表现。你在这个应纳税的经纪账户上可能会有一些收益。人们谈论税收损失的收获,这是需要关注的重要问题。也许这一年是税收收获的一年。如果明年资本利得率可能会更高,也许你想在今年实现一些收益,也许你只是想要策略性地实现它,这取决于你的纳税等级。如果你有能力实现这些税率为零的长期资本利得,你希望每年都这样做。如果你认为在某一时刻上限收益率会上升你会意识到在15%的利率中,你可能会想要这样做。 There’s also with long-term capital gains rates, a 3.8% Affordable Care Act surcharge over a certain income limits to 250 single, 250 married. If you can realize capital gains below there, it might make sense. So, again, I think it’s worth, for most of you, taking a look at your taxable pool of money and seeing if it makes sense to realize any capital gains in this year.

你可能还想开始考虑罗斯的转换。这就是你把你在这里积累的一些美元转移到这里的地方。当你这样做的时候,那是没有乐趣的,因为你确实要交税。然而,在缴税时,你的税率可能是我们一生中最低的,对吧。随着时间的推移,所有这些价格都可能上涨。如果你有钱,你的选择不是是否纳税。有了RMDs,这在某个时候会出现,取决于法律,可能是72,如果通过,可能是75。但是你在纳税。你唯一的选择是什么时候,以什么速度。你以今天的低利率支付,哦,顺便说一句,那么所有未来的增长都是免税的。没有要求的最低分配。结果是零。或者你将来会以某种未知但可能更高的利率支付吗。正确的。所以我认为这些都是有意义的事情。

我已经讲了很多了,所以我要回答一些问题,休息一下。我还想说,这里发生了很多事情。如果你愿意,我们公司是做财务规划的。万博manbetx2.0论坛我们是收费理财规划师,法定受托人以人们的最佳利益行事。我们通常每小时收费250美元。但对于那些参加过网络研讨会的人,我们将免费提供。我们会和某人见面几个小时,做一个免费的财务评估。我们来看看你的投资组合,看看你的资产在哪里。你是过于专注于小公司还是大公司?你的资产是否多样化了? Are you on track for whatever your required rate of return is to actually get there? And then with your taxes, where do your assets lie? Which pool of money is it in? What tax bracket are you likely to be in in the future? Should you be considering trying to get money into the tax-free pool? Should you be considering tax gain or tax loss harvesting? Should you be – I don’t know. Maybe you should be moving into this pool to lower your taxes now because you’re going be higher in the future or excuse me, vice versa- you’re higher now than you will be in the future. We’ll take a look at all that, we’ll go through your tax return. We’ll go through your investment statements, give you some thoughts on your cash flow, Social Security, et cetera. Like I said, we usually charge $250 an hour. We waive the fee. We’ll spend a couple hours with you with one of the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERs here to review all of that, give you our thoughts. No cost, no obligation. If you’re interested in that, Andi will put up the offer. Again, we’re not- we do it all the time. We do it for a lot of people. Might be helpful just to kick start. You can go then kind of put some of those concepts into work on your own, if that’s what you’re interested in. With that, let me pause and let me take any questions that might have come up along the way.

问题

安迪:所以我们的第一个是来自Doug。“房地产与你的债券和股票比率有什么关系?”

布莱恩:嗯,当我考虑房地产的时候,我通常会把它加进来,我通常会考虑高水平的东西,比如增长、安全和高质量债券,显然这是一个连续体,但是现金,高质量债券是你的安全保障。然后像股票,房地产,自然资源等更多的是为了增长。所以我会把它扔进泳池。然后我会看-我的意思是,每个人的比率都是不同的。如果它像灵丹妙药一样简单,我就会把它放在我的上一本书里,然后卖掉它,在我的销售栏里加几个零。你们所有人都需要去买这本书,但我会在上面写更多的零因为这是一个神奇的解决方案。没有神奇的解决方案。这取决于你喜欢什么。有些人喜欢房地产。他们喜欢这样的想法:看看他们的投资,知道他们可以通过它。 Other people get a call from about the plumber and the toilet and they’re like, I never want to deal with this again. This is God awful. You get a bad tenant that makes you reassess your life. So it really depends. But I would definitely throw it into that growth bucket along with your stocks or natural resources as the assets that are going to keep pace with and hopefully exceed inflation while you also have those safe assets to pull on in the near term.

安迪:好,下一个问题来自理查德。“你建议在退休投资中使用加密货币吗?”

布莱恩:现在还不一定。首先,它们非常不稳定,对吧?我的意思是,我们看到加密货币上下波动。你需要弄清楚哪种加密货币,比特币是最知名的。这并不意味着它会成为赢家。更大的问题是双重的。我认为现在还处于早期阶段。所以这一领域将如何发展还不确定。你会看到更多潜在的监管,无论是与中国政府,还是美国讨论发行潜在的数字货币。这意味着什么? So it’s tough to evaluate what they’re actually worth. I’m not dismissing the space. I think that it’s exciting to watch and has lots of possibilities. But I’m not sure. I’m not sure that in the long run, we’re going to have 50 or 500 or whatever digital currencies. We’ll probably have potentially a couple. Which are going to be the winners? I don’t know. I mean, same stage of development. You probably would have wanted to put your money into MySpace and Netscape as opposed to, let’s say, Google and Facebook. Right. And those when it turned out that well. So you don’t really know what the winners are going to be. It’s also incredibly volatile. If you do use it, what I would say is you probably want to use it like salt on your food, right? Like a little sprinkle, a couple percent not go all in.

安迪:好吧,劳里想知道,“你认为黄金作为一种投资有何价值?”

布莱恩:我会把黄金扔到加密空间,因为在这种情况下,黄金的长期回报率实际上是零。黄金的问题和加密的问题是一样的,没有现金流。所以,当你评估房地产、债券、股票时,你会看到你能得到什么样的现金回报?如果我投入1000美元,在今天,在未来的明天会有什么样的现金?然后你给它赋值。这就是数学。当你看黄金时,它从来不会引发任何现金流。当你看加密,它不会启动现金流。所以现在你看的是情绪。你不是说我会得到什么样的现金流,而是说其他人将来会说它值多少钱?这并不意味着这是一个不好的练习,但它从根本上是不同的。更多的是心理学,更少的是数学。所以它就变得有点不同了。

安迪:好的。然后佩吉说,“在投资组合中,国际股票应该落在哪里?”

布莱恩:是的,这取决于你想要完成什么。但我们认为,国际和全球投资对几乎所有人都有意义。有时国际股市表现更好,有时美国股市表现更好。我们倾向于根据投资组合的不同,从20%到40%都是国际股票。你可以说,你的股票几乎都是国际化的,这取决于你是如何衡量国际化的,还是只有极少数。有不同的方法,但我认为大量投资国际股票。还是15% 20% 30% 40% 50%,但仍然更倾向于美国因为你住在那里。那是你花钱的地方。我想这可能是正确的方法。

安迪:好,布伦特用另一种方式问了这个问题,他说,“什么行业会随着通货膨胀而上升?”

布莱恩:视情况而定。通常这些行业都有很好的定价权。所以,这些都是相对的。如果通胀急剧上升,什么都不会上升,对吧?如果我们明天醒来发现通胀率是8%,一切都会下降。我只是泛泛而谈,但如果通货膨胀随着时间的推移逐渐上升,那些拥有很好的定价权的行业。所以我并不是针对苹果,因为我对它的股票没有任何看法。但如果苹果的音乐每月提高1美元的价格,如果你正在使用它,你可能只想取消订阅。正确的。苹果的品牌知名度很高。 So you’re looking at companies like Coke, right? You’re not going to stop drinking Coke or Budweiser or whatever it is, based on a small increase so companies with pretty good name recognition and pricing power. Companies that usually in an inflationary environment, raw materials do well. So those sectors could do pretty well. What you usually want to avoid are industries that don’t have pricing power. Right, because now they’re just getting crunched right. Their input costs might be going up and their export costs aren’t- or their sales pricing doesn’t go up.

安迪:现在,这是我们最后一个问题,可以说这是最后一个机会,如果你还有其他问题,现在就开始聊天,山姆说:“现行税率到2025年会恢复到上届政府的税率,这是真的吗?那么这对税收筹划有什么影响呢?”

布莱恩:是的,这是现在的利率,以前的利率,10%是一样的,12%是15%,22%是25%。24%是28%。32%是33%。35%保持不变。37%是39.6%。是的。2025年之后,我们的计划是——我们得到的减税从来都不是永久性的,而是暂时的。他们计划在2025年之后到期,我们计划回到以前的价格。美元的数量-税收是边际的,所以在这些更高的税率下征税的美元数量在2025年后也会更大。举个例子,我四舍五入了,但是24%的已婚夫妇的最高收入是32万美元,而原来的25%的最高收入是15万美元。 So you get more dollars falling in higher tax brackets as well. The impact is that everything that I talked about with this is I mean, it’s more important, you know, that in 2025 or after that, taxes are going higher, you want to start positioning for that. I think the only thing that’s changed is that those higher taxes may be coming sooner. Even if they don’t come, they’re coming. It’s just a matter of how fast is the locomotive moving towards you. If it’s moving faster there’s even more urgency. But either way, the sooner you begin to take action to build tax flexibility in your retirement, the better off you are. Because what you don’t want to do is have to try and do a huge conversion or realize all your capital gains in a single year because you blow yourself up. You want to come up with a roadmap for where you want to get and then gradually be able to do it. And whether it’s 2025 or this year, taxes likely going higher at some point in the future. You want to take steps to protect yourself. And again, that’s something that if you want to come in and have a chat, that’s basically what we’ll talk about with you for an hour is, hey, here are some possibilities you have to position yourself to avoid this locomotive that’s heading down the tracks, whether now, next year, 3 or 4 years from now or a decade from now, either way, taxes are going higher. It’s going to be your biggest expense in retirement. How does that fit in with your cash flow? How does that fit in for your investments and what do you do? That’s what we go over in that assessment. If that’s something that you want to take advantage of.

安迪:布莱恩,非常感谢你今天精彩的演讲。

布莱恩:谢谢。是的,很感激。祝大家都好。我期待下次再见到你。当心

安迪:好吧。谢谢你,每一个人。祝你今天愉快。

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读一下布莱恩·佩里的新书,忽略炒作:超越媒体驱动的混乱超出的财务策略

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